Those who want peace do not start wars. Those who respect international law do not violate it. Those who reject imperialism do not act like imperialists and invade their neighbors. Sadly, these platitudes need to be reiterated in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The post-truth world is so hopelessly disoriented, its attention span is so short, and the waters of public opinion are so muddied that what used to be a platitude before, can be a useful reminder now.

Let us take a look at where Russia’s invasion is now, after almost four years of carnage. With hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians and Russians, Russia has just recently fully occupied one of Ukraine’s 24 oblasts. It is losing every month from 15 to 20 thousand dead military. I.e. they lose in Ukraine monthly more than Soviet Union lost in 10 years of Afghanistan. To make things easier for itself, Russia makes them harder for Africans and other foreign nationals who get lured into Europe’s worst meat grinder since World War Two. The meat grinder needs “meat”, and Russia gets it wherever it can.

Ukraine pays a price too. But it knows what for: not to be occupied. “If Russia stops fighting – there will be no war; if Ukraine stops fighting – there will be no Ukraine” – another simple truth that needs a reminder.  

As the front, despite all the effort, hasn’t been moving largely for the last years, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has offered that both Ukraine and Russia stop fighting – along the current front line. Which was a painful decision – since it would leave many Ukrainians under occupation. Russia’s answer to peace negotiations without preconditions suggested by Ukraine (and many other countries, including South Africa) was a resounding NO.

Because President Vladimir Putin does have preconditions. One of the major ones: giving him Ukrainian land in the East and South he could not conquer in these three years. Let us savor it for a moment: a United Nations member, a permanent member of the UN Security Council demands territory of its neighbor as precondition to stop a war of aggression against it. So much for adhering to the UN Charter.

Another precondition: full immunity for all things Russian soldiers did to Ukraine. Which includes documented mass killings of civilians, torture, rape, beheadings, and castrations. Much of it we know from Russian soldiers posting about it on Telegram. Because we live in the era of social media, and the occupiers take pride and joy at what they do. Also, because their government promised that no matter what they do – they will get away with it.

Another precondition: Ukraine must disarm. Because Ukraine is a threat to Russia. Yes, you heard right: a country that in recent years has conducted at least two wars of aggression against its neighbors (Georgia, Ukraine) describes one of its victims as “a threat” and thus demands its disarmament and defenselessness. Like something very similar did not happen in Europe 90 years ago. History truly is a never-ending cycle. And the only thing it teaches us is that it teaches us nothing.

And finally, the icing on the cake: all of Russia’s frozen assets are to be unfrozen and all sanctions to be lifted. In other words: after starting a war, killings hundreds of thousands, burning down dozens of Ukrainian cities and villages, trying to freeze millions of Ukrainians to death by destroying their energy infrastructure during wintertime, it should not be Russia’s responsibility to pay damages. With millions of Ukrainians displaced and de-facto homeless – let others save what is left of their shattered lives and rebuild what was razed to the ground.

Ukraine is being openly pressured to accept it. At this point, there is no way to know whether and how many of these preconditions will be met. What is clear though is that once they are, it will be a different world from there on. A world where all nations will know: if you are powerful enough and want to carve up your neighbor, while having fun and killing thousands in the process – it will be okay. Many in the world will condemn not you but your neighbor – if he dares to resist. They will pressure him to give you what you want. And, in the end, no matter how many you kill, they will even celebrate you as peacemaker once you gracefully accept the offering of a part of your neighbor’s land, life, and freedom.

There is a high probability that Ukraine peace accord, once reached, will be a template for a new global order in the 21^st century. And what a different global order it might be! Russia’s “preconditions” are just a sneak peek. Its leading ideologue Aleksandr Dugin calls this brave new world “the age of new empires”. Which apparently would make it also the age of New Imperialism.

This op-ed is originally publishied in TheCitizen newspaper and available via link.